How to use
Drawdown Arc
A complete walkthrough of every input, chart, and feature — so you get accurate projections the first time.
Getting started
Drawdown Arc runs entirely in your browser. There's nothing to install, no account required, and your data is never sent to any server. Open the calculator, fill in your numbers, and your projection updates instantly.
All calculations happen locally in your browser. No data is transmitted, stored, or logged anywhere. Close the tab and it's gone.
Every input change recalculates the full projection in real time. Use the sidebar to adjust any value and all four charts update immediately.
Click any section header in the sidebar to collapse it. Your scroll position is preserved so you can focus on the inputs you're actively adjusting.
Click "Export to Excel" to download a formatted .xlsx with your full projection, all inputs, and your charts embedded as images. A PDF export option is also available.
Personal information
These four fields define the timeline of your entire projection. Everything else is calculated relative to your age.
Income sources
Drawdown Arc models three income streams in retirement: Social Security, pension income, and portfolio withdrawals. The first two are guaranteed; the third is drawn from your assets to cover the gap.
Assets & growth rates
Enter the current balance and expected growth rate for each account you own. The withdrawal order is shown separately in the Portfolio section.
Common benchmarks:
• Cash Equivalents / HYSA: 1–3% (varies with rate environment)
• Bonds / Conservative: 2–4%
• Diversified stock portfolio: 6–8%
• Roth / 401k (index funds): 6–8%
• Crypto: highly variable — model conservatively
The default values use 6% nominal growth for equity accounts with 3% inflation on spending — this is the standard approach. If you prefer to use real (inflation-adjusted) growth rates (e.g., 3–4% for equities), set inflation to 0% to avoid double-counting. Choose one approach and be consistent.
Portfolio & withdrawal priority
Accounts are grouped and drawn down according to a tax-efficient framework commonly used in retirement planning.
• Use lower-tax assets first
• Preserve long-term tax-advantaged growth
• Reduce future required minimum distribution (RMD) burden
• Protect tax-free assets for later years
The Standard Order sequence is:
1. Taxable (Brokerage) — capital gains treatment, draw early
2. Other / Speculative — similar tax profile, higher risk
3. Tax-Deferred (401k / IRA / TSP) — taxed as ordinary income on withdrawal; subject to RMDs at 73 or 75 (SECURE 2.0)
4. Tax-Free (Roth) — preserve for latest years, grows tax-free
5. Cash Equivalents — liquid reserve buffer
Pro users can apply two additional strategies from the Roth Analysis tab:
• Tax-Optimized — fills lower tax brackets each year using a mix of account types, reducing lifetime taxes without Roth conversions
• Roth Conversion — converts tax-deferred funds to Roth during the pre-Social Security window, paying tax now to reduce future RMDs and grow assets tax-free
RMDs are taken before any voluntary withdrawals. If the RMD amount exceeds your spending gap for that year, the surplus is deposited into your Savings account rather than removed from the plan — it remains invested as liquid cash.
Pro unlocks two additional strategies on the Roth Analysis tab:
- Tax-Optimized — fills lower tax brackets each year by drawing from tax-deferred accounts up to the top of the 12% bracket, then Roth, then taxable. Minimizes lifetime tax without conversions.
- Roth Conversion — same as Tax-Optimized, plus converts a portion of tax-deferred assets to Roth each year during the pre-Social Security window, reducing future RMDs and growing assets tax-free.
Tax modeling (Federal)
When taxes are enabled, the calculator applies 2026 federal progressive income tax brackets to your total retirement income and grosses up your withdrawals to ensure taxes are actually covered.
1. Calculates your total income (SS + Pension + Withdrawals)
2. Subtracts the standard deduction ($16,100 single / $32,200 MFJ; plus $2,050 single / $1,650 MFJ for taxpayers age 65+)
3. Applies 2026 federal brackets progressively
4. Iteratively increases withdrawals to cover the resulting tax bill
The gross-up runs up to 6 iterations to converge within $1 of the correct tax amount. This means if your withdrawals cause a tax liability, that tax is funded by additional withdrawals — which is how it works in reality.
What's NOT modeled: the 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax (NIIT), Medicare IRMAA surcharges, RMD minimization strategies (e.g., Roth conversions).
Note on Roth: withdrawals from Roth accounts are included in the tax gross-up for simplicity. In reality, qualified Roth distributions are tax-free, meaning the tool slightly overstates taxes in years when Roth accounts are drawn.
- Single — $16,100 standard deduction
- Married Filing Jointly (MFJ) — $32,200 standard deduction, widest brackets; use this if you're married
- Head of Household (HoH) — $24,150 standard deduction; for unmarried filers supporting a dependent
- Married Filing Separately (MFS) — $16,100 standard deduction; typically results in higher tax than MFJ
- Qualifying Surviving Spouse (QSS) — $32,200 standard deduction; available for up to two years after a spouse's death
Drawdown Arc accounts for this correctly. Each projection year, bracket limits and the standard deduction grow with your inflation assumption — so a retiree whose real spending is flat doesn't face a creeping tax increase simply because nominal dollars are larger.
The one thing that doesn't adjust: Social Security taxation thresholds.
The IRS determines what portion of your SS benefit is taxable using "provisional income" thresholds — $25,000 and $34,000 for single filers, $32,000 and $44,000 for married. These numbers were set in 1983 and have never been indexed to inflation.
This creates what tax professionals call the Social Security Tax Torpedo. As your nominal SS benefit grows with COLA each year, more and more of it crosses those frozen thresholds and becomes taxable — even if your real purchasing power hasn't changed. A retiree who starts retirement with 50% of their SS benefit taxable may have 85% taxable within 15 years, with no change in their actual standard of living.
Drawdown Arc models this precisely: brackets inflate, SS thresholds don't. The torpedo effect you see in later projection years reflects what will actually happen — not a modeling simplification.
Most online retirement calculators get this wrong in one of two ways — either they freeze all tax parameters (overstating late-retirement taxes) or they inflate everything including SS thresholds (understating the torpedo effect). Drawdown Arc applies the correct treatment to each.
Tax modeling (State)
Drawdown Arc models state income tax for all 50 states plus the District of Columbia. This is a Pro feature. The calculator applies each state's standard deduction, rate structure, and retirement income exemptions to your estimated taxable income each year. Local and city taxes (e.g., NYC, Yonkers) are not included. All data reflects 2025 state tax year rates and brackets.
Select a state below to view its tax parameters as used in the projection engine.
State tax parameters are approximations based on 2025 published state rates. States typically do not publish updated tax parameters until late in the calendar year — 2026 state figures will be incorporated when available. Federal brackets reflect 2026 values per Rev. Proc. 2025-32. Some state-specific credits, exemptions, and local surcharges are not modeled. Consult a tax professional for precise calculations.
What's Included and What's Not
What we model
- Standard deduction (+ personal exemption where applicable) by filing status
- Progressive bracket and flat-rate calculations for all 50 states + DC
- Social Security, pension, and retirement account (401k/IRA) income exemptions for all applicable states
- Income-threshold SS exemptions (CT, MN, RI, VT)
- Age-gated retirement exemptions (55+, 60+, 62+, 65+ by state)
- All five filing statuses with state-appropriate bracket and deduction mapping
- State tax integrated into year-by-year projections, summary cards, table, and exports
What we don't model
- Itemized or non-standard deductions
- Government vs. private pension distinction (some states exempt only government pensions)
- Local / city income taxes (NYC, Yonkers, OH cities, MD county, IN county, KY city)
- State AMT or state-level credits
Healthcare costs
Drawdown Arc does not model healthcare as a separate line item. Healthcare costs vary dramatically by person — age, location, household size, employer history, chronic conditions, and coverage choices all play a role. Rather than bake in an assumption that would be wrong for most people, the calculator treats healthcare as part of your overall annual spending need.
When you set your Needed Income, that figure should include what you expect to spend on healthcare premiums, out-of-pocket costs, and any supplemental coverage. If you're unsure, research ACA marketplace premiums for your age and state, or Medicare Part B + supplemental plan costs if you're 65+.
How the guides handle it
In the age-based retirement guides, all scenarios assume ACA marketplace coverage before age 65 and Medicare after 65. These are baked into each guide's spending assumptions as a simplification — your actual costs will depend on your specific situation.
Why we don't model it separately
Healthcare spending is too personal to generalize. A healthy 55-year-old couple on an ACA Bronze plan might spend $12,000/year in premiums alone, while someone with employer retiree benefits might pay a fraction of that. Medicare premiums, Medigap policies, Part D drug plans, and IRMAA surcharges add further variation. Any built-in assumption would give false precision.
Reading the charts
Four charts give you four different views into your projection. Each one highlights something different. Here's how to read them.
Above the charts, summary cards show key metrics at a glance: peak assets, depletion age, years of retirement funded, funding ratio, estimated total taxes, and average effective tax rate.
Each colored band represents one account type. The total height is your total assets. As accounts are drawn down according to your Standard Order priority, individual bands shrink. Watch which accounts disappear first — this reveals how your withdrawal sequence plays out over time.
Shows where your income comes from each year: pension (amber), Social Security (green), portfolio withdrawals (blue), and taxes paid (red). The white dashed line is your net spending target. When the bars reach the line, your plan is fully funded for that year. When bars fall short, you're underfunded. Tax bars extend above the line — they're a cost, not income.
Plots your base-case annual spending need alongside ±1% inflation scenarios from retirement age onward. This reveals how sensitive your long-term spending power is to inflation assumptions — one of the highest-impact variables in any retirement projection.
Shows five scenarios of total assets over your full lifetime, varying your retirement age by ±2 years around your chosen target. The gold line is your base case. Use this to see how even small shifts in retirement timing affect long-term portfolio sustainability.
Exporting your projection
Two export options let you save and share your projection. The Excel export generates a formatted .xlsx workbook with four sheets. The PDF report (available with a Pro subscription) produces a comprehensive document with cover page, summary statistics, year-by-year projections, and visual charts.
Sheet 2 — Projection: Year-by-year table with Year, Age, Total Assets, SS Income, Pension Income, Withdrawal, Taxes, and Total Income. Columns are currency-formatted and the first row is frozen.
Sheet 3 — Inputs: Every parameter you entered, labeled for reference and record-keeping.
Sheet 4 — Charts: All charts captured at high resolution and embedded as images in the spreadsheet.
Features & limitations
Every projection model makes simplifying assumptions. Understanding what Drawdown Arc does and doesn't model helps you interpret results accurately.
| What We Model | What We Don't Model |
|---|---|
| 2026 Federal income tax | Local/city income taxes (e.g., NYC) |
| State income tax, all 50 states + DC (Pro) | — |
| Standard deduction (all five filing statuses) | Itemized deductions |
| Long-term capital gains rates (0%/15%/20%) | Crypto capital gains tracking (taxed as ordinary income) |
| SS benefit taxation (provisional income rules) | Social Security insolvency risk post-2033 |
| Tax gross-up on withdrawals (after-tax spending input) | — |
| 2026 Medicare IRMAA Part B surcharges | Medicare Part D IRMAA (varies by plan) |
| 4% rule modeling with tax math | — |
| Roth Conversion strategy (Pro) | Net Investment Income Tax (3.8% NIIT) |
| RMDs from tax-deferred accounts (SECURE 2.0) | Employer match, contribution splits across accounts |
| Cash equivalents drained first in withdrawals | — |
| Inflation-adjusted spending | Healthcare cost inflation (typically 2–3× Consumer Price Index) |
| Linear annual growth per account | Per-lot cost basis tracking (blended average used) |
| Social Security + pension COLA | Spousal SS benefits, separate pensions, or separate retirement ages |
| Annual contributions pre-retirement | — |
| Monte Carlo simulation (Pro) | — |
| Sequence of returns risk testing (Pro) | — |
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